★★★★★
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What's new in 1.2.4 • A cleaner Home: Today, Soccer (pick a league underneath) and MLB • New "Message" in Profile: tell us what you think, we read every one • MLB review page now shows the right layout • Stability fixes
VERDICT reads every match through an in-house statistical model and shows its work. After the final whistle, it grades itself in public. HOW THE MODEL WORKS • Soccer and the Champions League: each side's expected goals come from its attacking and defensive strength (this season plus last) and home advantage. A Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles correction for low scores then calculates the exact probability of every scoreline, which gives the win / draw / loss chances and the most likely scores. Every number is calculated directly from those probabilities, not simulated. Champions League matches add an adjustment for comparing clubs from different leagues. • MLB: each team's expected runs come from its offense, the opponent's run prevention and the probable starting pitchers. The model then plays the game out 50,000 times, extra innings included, to estimate each side's chance to win and how many runs each team is likely to score. NEW IN 1.2.4 • A cleaner Home: Today, Soccer (pick a league underneath) and MLB • Message us: send feedback straight to the developer from Profile • Fixes and polish ON EVERY MATCH Prediction card (free, no ad): win probabilities, expected score and key numbers. Full analysis page (unlock it with one short ad per match): Soccer: expected goals, a score-probability heatmap with the six most likely scores, how many goals the match is likely to have, clean-sheet chances, league table and recent form, the last six meetings, and the model's reasoning and key factors. MLB: the pitching matchup, expected runs, each team's run distribution, the distribution of combined runs for both teams, the chance of a one-run game, extra innings or a shutout, season form, and the model's reasoning and key factors. Every analysis page also answers "How accurate is the model?": past forecasts grouped by the probability the model gave, next to how often they actually came true, plus how the model has done in this league and in games with each team. Small samples are labelled as such. AN HONEST TRACK RECORD Every published forecast is graded against the real result once the match ends. Hits and misses both stay on the record. COVERAGE MLB · Premier League · La Liga · Serie A · Bundesliga · Ligue 1 · Champions League LANGUAGES English, 简体中文 and 繁體中文. Switch anytime in Profile. FREE, SUPPORTED BY ADS VERDICT is free to use. Banner ads and the short ads that unlock analysis pages keep it that way. Watching an ad never pays out money or prizes; it only unlocks content in the app. FOR ENTERTAINMENT VERDICT is entertainment and personal statistical analysis. It is not financial advice or advice of any other kind, and there is no real money anywhere in the app. No forecast is ever certain: the model misses, and the track record shows every miss. VERDICT is not affiliated with or endorsed by any league, team or player. Made by (Jupiter Business Consulting LLC).